Black Friday stock has to be ordered weeks before you know how the sale will go. Order too little and you sell out on the busiest day of the year. Order too much and you carry it into January. This guide covers how to size the order and when to place it.
Measure last year's lift
Start with what happened last time. For each product, compare units sold in last year's Black Friday week with units sold in a normal week shortly before it. The ratio is your lift.
- Normal week last year: 70 units
- Black Friday week last year: 210 units
- Lift: 210 ÷ 70 = 3 times a normal week
If a product sold out during last year's sale, its lift is understated, because you cannot count sales you had no stock for. If you have no history, use the lift from a similar product and treat it as a rough guide.
Apply the lift to this year's sales
Last year's unit count is the wrong starting point if the product has grown or shrunk since. Multiply the lift by this year's normal week instead.
| Step | Number |
|---|---|
| Normal week this year | 90 units |
| Lift from last year | × 3 |
| Expected Black Friday week | 270 units |
Adjust the lift if this year's plan is different. A deeper discount, a bigger email list or more ad spend can push it up. A smaller promotion can pull it down.
Decide which products get the extra stock
You do not need to stock up evenly. Put the extra units behind the products that carry your revenue and that you plan to promote. Shopify's ABC product analysis report grades each variant A, B or C by its share of revenue over the last 28 days, which is a quick way to see where to focus.
- ✅ Products featured in your sale emails and ads
- ✅ Steady sellers you can still sell at full price in December
- ❌ Slow products you hope the sale will rescue
- ❌ Seasonal items that lose value after the holidays
Work back from your lead time
The order date matters as much as the quantity. Count back from the day you want stock on the shelf, using your supplier's longest recent lead time, not the average. Suppliers and carriers are often slower before the holidays.
- Stock ready by: 7 days before Black Friday
- Longest recent lead time: 21 days
- Order no later than: 28 days before Black Friday
Remember that you keep selling at the normal rate while you wait. The order has to cover those weeks as well as the sale itself, plus your usual safety stock.
Plan for what is left over
Some stock will remain after the sale. Decide in advance what you will do with it, so the order size reflects the real risk.
- Sells year-round: Leftovers reduce your next reorder, so leaning high is low risk
- Holiday-specific: Leftovers may need a markdown, so order closer to the forecast
- After the sale: Reset each reorder point to normal demand, or it will keep ordering for a peak that has passed
Doing this at scale
StockSense forecasts per-SKU demand from your order history using velocity, trend, seasonality and lead-time-aware safety stock, and recommends a reorder point, quantity and date. It ranks SKUs by revenue at risk and drafts purchase orders grouped by supplier. See StockSense.